Monday, July 13, 2015

Derrick Coleman: A Draft Pick for the Ages


Unable to consummate a trade, the Brooklyn Nets this week bought out the contract of former all-star point guard Deron Williams. Thus ended a peculiar string that started with the drafting of Derrick Coleman first overall in 1990. Deron Williams holds the same roster spot that Coleman filled with the Nets. We’ll call it the Derrick Coleman Roster Spot (DCRS). Through that 25 year period, the occupant was directly replaced by a marquee trade acquisition six consecutive times. You can make the argument that the Derrick Coleman selection was the most productive draft pick ever. Here is the lineage.


1990 - New Jersey Nets draft Derrick Coleman.
Details: Coleman was selected #1 overall after a successful 4-year career at Syracuse University.




1995 - Coleman traded to Philly for Shawn Bradley.
Details: This was a straight-up one-for-one trade. It was a blockbuster to be sure, but the simplest among the more complex trades to follow.


1997 - Bradley traded to Dallas in a package that brought Sam Cassell.
Details: Dallas got Bradley, Pack, Ed O'Bannon and Khalid Reeves for Jim Jackson, Eric Montross, Sam Cassell, Chris Gatling and George McCloud.


1998 - Cassell traded to Milwaukee in a package that brought Stephon Marbury.
Details: In a 3-way trade, Nets sent Cassell to the Bucks, while the Nets acquired Stephon Marbury from the Minnesota Timberwolves.


2001 - Marbury traded to Phoenix in a package that brought J-Kidd.
Details: Nets traded all-star Stephon Marbury and role player Johnny Newman to the Phoenix Suns for all-star/All-NBA point Jason Kidd and Chris Dudley (whom the Nets later released).


2008 - Kidd traded to Dallas in a package that brought Devin Harris.
Details: Jason Kidd, Malik Allen, and Antoine Wright were traded to the Dallas Mavericks for future Nets All-Star Devin Harris, Keith Van Horn, Maurice Ager, DeSagana Diop, Trenton Hassell, $3 million, and 2008 and 2010 first-round draft picks.


2011 - Harris traded to Utah in a package that brought D-Will.
Details: The Nets made a surprising trade for All-Star point guard Deron Williams. The trade sent Devin Harris and rookie Derrick Favors to the Utah Jazz along with draft picks from the Golden State Warriors and cash considerations.

2015 - Deron Williams brought out by the Brooklyn Nets.
Details: Nets bought out the remaining $43 million on Williams' contract for $27.5 million, with payments to him spread over the next five seasons.

I don’t know if this is a record of any sort, but it is certainly noteworthy. Most stars leave teams through free agency, retirement, being waived, or as in D-Will’s case, being bought out. That the Nets were able to repeatedly trade in a tired, aging or stale star for a younger star with hope so many times, is a testament to, well, something. Note that Williams was born 17 years after Coleman.

Certainly the Nets have not been consistently good in that period, notwithstanding back-to-back NBA Finals appearances with Kidd in the early aughts. But they managed to have five different players at the all-star game from the DCRS. The story of this lineage is the story of the Nets franchise over the past quarter century.

Take a look at the productivity the Nets enjoyed out of the DCRS.

Table 1. Productivity from the Derrick Coleman Draft Pick

Player
Years ★ all star
Games
Points
Assists
Rebounds
Steals
Blocks
Derrick Coleman (b. 1967)
1990-95
5 seasons ★
348
6,930
1,093
3,690
320
559
Shawn Bradley (b. 1972)
1995-97
2 seasons
107
1,318
75
857
64
410
Sam Cassell
(b. 1969)
1997-98
3 seasons
102
1,988
771
316
161
27
Stephon Marbury (b. 1977)
1998-2001
3 seasons ★
172
3,863
1,398
525
221
23
Jason Kidd
(b. 1973)
2001-08
7 seasons
★★★★★
506
7,373
4,620
3,662
950
135
Devin Harris
(b. 1983)
2008-11
4 seasons ★
212
3,747
1,473
645
284
44
Deron Williams (b. 1984)
2011-15
4 seasons ★
277
4,609
2,078
875
314
83
Total for DCRS
25 seasons
★★★★★
★★★★
1724
29,828
11,508
10,570
2,314
1,281

If you consider what that #1 pick in 1990 yielded, it makes for a statistical bonanza. Consider where DCRS would rank among the all-time NBA leaders.
Games: 1,724 - 1st all time, ahead of Robert Parish 1,611
Points: 29,828 - 6th all time, ahead of Shaquille O’Neal 28,596
Assists: 11,508 - 3rd all time, ahead of Steve Nash 10,335
Rebounds: 10,570 - 29th all time, ahead of David Robinson 10,497
Steals: 2,314 - 5th all time, ahead of Mo Cheeks 2,310
Blocks: 1,281 - 47th all time, ahead of Shawn Kemp 1,279

People like to malign Derrick Coleman, saying that he never reached his potential. That may be accurate, but the productivity that the Nets enjoyed out of the DCRS ranks with household names in every major statistical category.

The mix of rebound- and block-happy big men (Coleman, Bradley) blended with assist and steal wizards (Kidd, Williams) yielded a wonderful mix of stats. Any fantasy team owner would drool for these stats.

The aggregation of the DCRS statistics raises the question of comparables. Many of the all-time greats don’t map over so well. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar exceeds DCRS in points and rebounds, but lags badly behind in assists and steals. Steve Nash accumulated assists and steals faster than DCRS, but didn’t have as many rebounds or blocks. Since the DCRS did include that mixture of players from different positions, the best comp I could find was Scottie Pippen, one of the greatest all around players ever.


Table 2. Career Averages, DCRS vs. Scottie Pippen

Player
Years ★ all star
Games/Yr
Points
Assists
Rebounds
Steals
Blocks
DCRS
25 seasons
★★★★★
★★★★
69
17.3
6.7
6.1
1.3
0.7
Scottie Pippen
17 seasons ★★★★★
★★
69
16.1
5.2
6.4
2.0
0.8

As you can see, Scottie is an excellent comp when you compare per game averages. Even the games played per year (both 69) and the all star appearances (a little more than one per three years) is spot on. Now, Scottie had 6 NBA championships and the Nets have 0, so the we can only take the comparison so far.

If I told you in 1990 that the Derrick Coleman pick would yield 25 years of Scottie Pippen-like productivity, would you take it? I would. It’s been a fun ride.

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